Conviction Markets
The prediction market space has an identity problem. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi built trading venues — order books, exit buttons, speculative asset mechanics — and called them prediction markets. They're trading venues cosplaying as prediction markets.
That model works for traders. But it misses the larger opportunity.
Conviction Markets are prediction markets that actually work like prediction markets. No order book. No flipping positions. No exit liquidity games. You put your money where your mouth is — and the market remembers when you showed up. Powered by bonding curve pricing, ML-driven market discovery, and edge infrastructure deployed across 6 continents.
The Problem We Solve
Parimutuel systems — the mechanism behind every racetrack and betting pool since 1867 — carry a fundamental game theory flaw: the rational late-betting problem. Because payouts are determined by the final pool distribution, informed participants are mathematically incentivized to wait until the last possible moment. Early commitment is penalized. Conviction is irrational.
Ottaviani & Sørensen proved this formally in 2006. Empirical data confirms it: roughly half of all money in parimutuel systems arrives in the final minutes. Markets stay thin, unresponsive, and manipulable until the final seconds — exactly when they're least useful.
We solved it with one formula.
How It Works
You pick an outcome. You deposit money. You receive shares. If your outcome wins, you split the entire pool proportional to your shares. Peer-to-peer. No house edge taking the other side. Winners collect from losers. That's it.
The difference: a bonding curve governs the price of shares. The more money already in a pool, the more expensive the next share becomes:
P(s) = Pmin + (Pmax - Pmin) · s / (K + s)
Early deposits buy more shares. Late deposits buy fewer. Payout per share is the same for everyone — more shares means more payout. Early conviction is cheaper than late certainty. That's not a bonus — it's the pricing mechanism itself.
Statements, Not Polls
Other platforms frame questions. Every market is a statement — you create it, you back it.
Finance — The old way
"Will Bitcoin hit $150k?"
That's a poll. It's passive.
Finance — The AnyBid way
"Bitcoin hits $150k by December."
That's a conviction. Pick a side.
Why It Works
The Pool Is Sacred
Every dollar deposited goes into the pool. The formula only decides how many shares each dollar buys — never the pool size. Total payouts always equal total deposits. The math is exact.
No Middlemen
No market makers. No liquidity providers. No house taking a position against you. Participants fund the market. Winners collect from losers. Peer-to-peer.
No Exit By Design
Shares don't trade because they're not meant to. When you can't sell, your position means something. Entry is commitment. That's the point.
Infrastructure
A Global Mesh
Edge-deployed prediction market infrastructure across 6 continents. ML-powered discovery. Sub-500ms delivery. Zero-downtime architecture.
6
Continents
<50ms
ML Inference
768
Embedding Dimensions
0
Downtime Architecture
Vector embeddings power market discovery. Every market is embedded into 768-dimensional semantic space. The recommendation engine understands meaning — not just keywords. Classical ML with collaborative filtering and velocity-based trending. Deterministic, explainable, and fast. The infrastructure that powers the future of prediction markets.
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Early Alpha
AnyBid Poweruser
Our search and prediction platform is in early alpha. Explore markets, make calls, and test the recommendation engine. Web-based. Free to join.
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iOS & Android
The native app is being built. Sub-500ms everything. Push notifications when your markets resolve. Sign up to get notified when it drops.
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Your Conviction. Your Call.
The prediction market where opinions have weight.